Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Iran: Saying 'No' is Not an Offer

The US seems to have changed tactics. Today it anounced that Teheran has the right for peaceful nuclear energy. This was done despite the fact that Teheran has done nothing to show any intention of moderation. That fact suggests that Teheran is out of time, because it means that the US, Russia and China have indeed reached an agreement that would allow the US to get off the high horse while still maintaining its credibility, i.e. sanctions, if the talks fail.

Teheran's response? an unequivocal 'No'. After the usual 'it's a trick' courtesy, Iran's President Ahmadinegad did not indicate he is going to tone down his anti-Israel and anti-West rhetoric, reassuring the west about the peaceful intentions. Instead he said that Iran will not give up enrichment since it is against its interests (which does not help alleviate concerns about nuclear weapons). But the Iranian president does not understand that just saying 'No' is not enough!

He is not willing to give up enrichment? fine, but he has to offer something that would alleviate the concerns or the West led by the US, will charge in and alleviate those ocncerns as it did in Iraq! What could such a thing be? It is hard to say, but for sure a trade off, a positive correlation if you will, must exist between Iran enriching Uranium and the IAEA supervising it: as the former goes up, the latter goes up even more.

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