Iran and the Nukes: A Dangerous Game
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahamdinajad anounced today that his country will not negotiate since it is now a nuclear power. By proclaiming this, the Iranian president is unaware of the fact that he has stretched the line a bit too far. With his recent statement, he may have lost the support of the last people that might save him from the military option.
In the beginning, Iran's attempts at nuclear weapons were seen as a ploy to divert the peope's attention from the country's backwardness. However as the situation becomes dire and Iran is heading further into isolation, the president must inflame the people of Iran further to prepare them for the economic disasters to come. With regards to the military option, Ahmadinajad is counting on Russia, China and the EU to cover his quest for glory; but he fails to see the reality.
The first time Iran has destroyed its own credibility was when it anounced the need to destroy Israel while insisting its nuclear program is a peaceful one. The Europeans turned a blind eye. The second time was when Iran anounced it has enriched the Uranium... strike two and the Europeans still turned a blind eye. However last week's declaration that Iran has tested a new 1300km range multi-target radar-evading missile (quite a mouthful isn't it?) has crossed the line. This range already reaches most of Europe's central and eastern capitals; but most importantly, it reaches Iran's biggest savior Moscow and that is something the Russians cannot accept. Russia is involved in a bloody conflict with Muslim Chechen rebels. Having an Islamic republic within range to extort it is something President Putin will not look kindly uopn. Talking to Hamas is one thing; being subject to nuclear extortion is another.
The EU itself will also not be there for the rescue once things go heywire. Their issue with Islam is known; and their intrinsic fear that Iran might be letting loose its potential enriched uranium for dirty bombs by terrorists is keeping several European leaders from getting a good night sleep.
Finally there's China. To be honest China might be Iran's only card once things get out of hand. However with its attempts to become a significant world leader and its increasing trade interests in the west, it is unlikely it will stick its neck out for Iran. Afetr all, there are other places to get oil; but not a lot of alternative customers for Chinese exports.
And so if President Ahamadinajad is not going to to get off the high horse quickly; he might soon find himself alone in the corner with no one behind him: no Europe, no Russia, no China; and finally when Iran's economic situation becomes even more desperate... no Iranian people.
In the beginning, Iran's attempts at nuclear weapons were seen as a ploy to divert the peope's attention from the country's backwardness. However as the situation becomes dire and Iran is heading further into isolation, the president must inflame the people of Iran further to prepare them for the economic disasters to come. With regards to the military option, Ahmadinajad is counting on Russia, China and the EU to cover his quest for glory; but he fails to see the reality.
The first time Iran has destroyed its own credibility was when it anounced the need to destroy Israel while insisting its nuclear program is a peaceful one. The Europeans turned a blind eye. The second time was when Iran anounced it has enriched the Uranium... strike two and the Europeans still turned a blind eye. However last week's declaration that Iran has tested a new 1300km range multi-target radar-evading missile (quite a mouthful isn't it?) has crossed the line. This range already reaches most of Europe's central and eastern capitals; but most importantly, it reaches Iran's biggest savior Moscow and that is something the Russians cannot accept. Russia is involved in a bloody conflict with Muslim Chechen rebels. Having an Islamic republic within range to extort it is something President Putin will not look kindly uopn. Talking to Hamas is one thing; being subject to nuclear extortion is another.
The EU itself will also not be there for the rescue once things go heywire. Their issue with Islam is known; and their intrinsic fear that Iran might be letting loose its potential enriched uranium for dirty bombs by terrorists is keeping several European leaders from getting a good night sleep.
Finally there's China. To be honest China might be Iran's only card once things get out of hand. However with its attempts to become a significant world leader and its increasing trade interests in the west, it is unlikely it will stick its neck out for Iran. Afetr all, there are other places to get oil; but not a lot of alternative customers for Chinese exports.
And so if President Ahamadinajad is not going to to get off the high horse quickly; he might soon find himself alone in the corner with no one behind him: no Europe, no Russia, no China; and finally when Iran's economic situation becomes even more desperate... no Iranian people.
posted by The Middle East News Addict at 10:15 PM
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