Iraq: Shia Government=Iranian Government?
Fellow readers
My apologies for not writing for almost two weeks. Aside from the fact it has been two hectic weeks, I have also experienced troubles accessing my blogger account.
Many things have happened in the Middle East in the past two weeks and many things still do. From A-Zarqawi's death to Palestinian in-fighting many things must be addressed. Today's point of thought concerns the establishment of a predominantly Shia government in Iraq and its implications on relations with Iran.
Many analysts, some of them Saddam-loyal Sunnis, parade the 'Shia-Scare' (as in red scare) explanation which argues that A Shia dominated government necessarily means an Iranian dominated government. While this might very well be, I would like to offer a couple of points for you to chew on before diving head first into this argument.
The first point that is important to remember, is that although A-Zarqawi is now dead and Bin-Laden is still on the run, the Sunni insurgency threat is far from over. The now predominantly Shia government will need two things for the time being to fight this threat. The first of these two is Sunni political parties' support. This is crucial to aleviate the concerns of the Sunni population. Those concerns will not be alleviated through enhanced contacts with Teheran.
The second thing the predominantly Shia government will need to reign in on the insurgency for the time being is American power. At some point or another Iraqi forces will have to assume control of the situation but that time has not arrived yet. If the Americans leave now it will spell disaster for the Iraqi government.
I know what you might all be thinking right now. "So what if it collapses? It is not in the interest of an Iranian dominated government to maintain the government in Iraq". This might be true but is not exact. Many Sunni Muslims still have access to military personnal and equipment. Add that to the insurgency and those two things are not things Iran is likely to be welcoming of. And so increased ties with Teheran might jepordize the US umbrella the government in Iraq now enjoys of.
But these are not the only points in which the equation appearing at the title of this post is questioned. The one final argument against the inevitabiliity of an Iraqi Shia government becoming an Iranian puppet lies in the balance of power inside the Muslim world. Shias may be the majority in Iran, they may be the majority in Iraq; but they are the overwhelming minority in the Muslim world in general and the surrounding countries specifically. That alone might dispel the Iranian and Iraqi governments from making any overwhelming overtures of reproachment. For if the surrounding Sunni dominated countries sniff even the slightest scent of such a possibility, not even the American forces will be able to stop them on their tracks. Accepting the vote of the Shia majority in control of Iraq is one thing; accepting a Shia pact in control of the region is another, particularly in light of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
And so I return to the main point of this post, that a Shia dominated government in Iraq does not necessarily mean an Iranian puppet. Of course anything is possible in the Middle East as we find out on a daily basis; but that does not mean that politics in the area are completely devoid of logic.
Tags:
Middle East, Politics, Iraq, Iran, Islam, US
My apologies for not writing for almost two weeks. Aside from the fact it has been two hectic weeks, I have also experienced troubles accessing my blogger account.
Many things have happened in the Middle East in the past two weeks and many things still do. From A-Zarqawi's death to Palestinian in-fighting many things must be addressed. Today's point of thought concerns the establishment of a predominantly Shia government in Iraq and its implications on relations with Iran.
Many analysts, some of them Saddam-loyal Sunnis, parade the 'Shia-Scare' (as in red scare) explanation which argues that A Shia dominated government necessarily means an Iranian dominated government. While this might very well be, I would like to offer a couple of points for you to chew on before diving head first into this argument.
The first point that is important to remember, is that although A-Zarqawi is now dead and Bin-Laden is still on the run, the Sunni insurgency threat is far from over. The now predominantly Shia government will need two things for the time being to fight this threat. The first of these two is Sunni political parties' support. This is crucial to aleviate the concerns of the Sunni population. Those concerns will not be alleviated through enhanced contacts with Teheran.
The second thing the predominantly Shia government will need to reign in on the insurgency for the time being is American power. At some point or another Iraqi forces will have to assume control of the situation but that time has not arrived yet. If the Americans leave now it will spell disaster for the Iraqi government.
I know what you might all be thinking right now. "So what if it collapses? It is not in the interest of an Iranian dominated government to maintain the government in Iraq". This might be true but is not exact. Many Sunni Muslims still have access to military personnal and equipment. Add that to the insurgency and those two things are not things Iran is likely to be welcoming of. And so increased ties with Teheran might jepordize the US umbrella the government in Iraq now enjoys of.
But these are not the only points in which the equation appearing at the title of this post is questioned. The one final argument against the inevitabiliity of an Iraqi Shia government becoming an Iranian puppet lies in the balance of power inside the Muslim world. Shias may be the majority in Iran, they may be the majority in Iraq; but they are the overwhelming minority in the Muslim world in general and the surrounding countries specifically. That alone might dispel the Iranian and Iraqi governments from making any overwhelming overtures of reproachment. For if the surrounding Sunni dominated countries sniff even the slightest scent of such a possibility, not even the American forces will be able to stop them on their tracks. Accepting the vote of the Shia majority in control of Iraq is one thing; accepting a Shia pact in control of the region is another, particularly in light of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
And so I return to the main point of this post, that a Shia dominated government in Iraq does not necessarily mean an Iranian puppet. Of course anything is possible in the Middle East as we find out on a daily basis; but that does not mean that politics in the area are completely devoid of logic.
Tags:
Middle East, Politics, Iraq, Iran, Islam, US
posted by The Middle East News Addict at 7:36 PM
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