1701 Crashing before it even started
As these lines are being written, UNSC 1701 resolution is slowly dying. No international force is looming; Lebanese army won't enforce things vis-a-vis Hezbollah and neither would the now smaller to non-existent UN force; and Hezbollah itself would only conceal its weapons south of the Litani river. Hezbollah-supporting Lebanese would see it as a victory for Hezbollah; however this shortsightedness ignores the long term reprocussions, ignored also by UN officials who will not enforce the agreement. Long term reprocussions measured in months perhaps a year tops.
It is obvious that Hezbollah will attack again once it allows Shia citizens in the South to recooperate their losses and catch their breath a bit. What is also clear is that when that happens, Israel will respond with full force as the UNSC 1701 resolution allows it and will not stop this time to wait for a ceasefire; but will rather be eager to end this once and for all. It will not wait for an international force noting this misearable example as a precedent.
In order to prevent this, the Lebanese government and the international community must wake up and quickly. They must enforce the resolution to its intent before the UN loses all credibility with Israel first; and following Israel's response to Hezbollah, with the Arab world. The international community must also shape up and provide the Lebanese government with enough funds to rebuild the country and assume the credit for that from Hezbollah. If none of these things is done, then we will be back in conflict within 6-10 months as Secretary of State Rice predicted in the early days of the war. This would make resolution 1701 as useless as the paper it is written on; and will be one more nail in the coughin of the UN.
It is obvious that Hezbollah will attack again once it allows Shia citizens in the South to recooperate their losses and catch their breath a bit. What is also clear is that when that happens, Israel will respond with full force as the UNSC 1701 resolution allows it and will not stop this time to wait for a ceasefire; but will rather be eager to end this once and for all. It will not wait for an international force noting this misearable example as a precedent.
In order to prevent this, the Lebanese government and the international community must wake up and quickly. They must enforce the resolution to its intent before the UN loses all credibility with Israel first; and following Israel's response to Hezbollah, with the Arab world. The international community must also shape up and provide the Lebanese government with enough funds to rebuild the country and assume the credit for that from Hezbollah. If none of these things is done, then we will be back in conflict within 6-10 months as Secretary of State Rice predicted in the early days of the war. This would make resolution 1701 as useless as the paper it is written on; and will be one more nail in the coughin of the UN.
posted by The Middle East News Addict at 4:42 PM
6 Comments:
While I agree with most of your post (the Arab world is of greater populatio and therefore greater importance than Israel, so credibility with the Arab world is of greater importance), it is unlikely that the international community will aid Lebanon in any significant ways. The international community is awake, it just doesn't care.
I agre with you that the International community will do nothig.
Muslim radicals try to sell their audiences the idea that they are more and that as such, western policy will lean in their favor, especially if ou consider the oil.
But what those who buy this illusion do not understand is that things are entirely different.
Concening the oil, the west had never had any problems using force to get it when needed if the financial cost proved counterproductive (i.e. supporting terror).
As for the numbers, those who beliee that fail to see Israel's important to the west as the cussion absorbing radical Islam's hits for them. They will not soon replace Israel as the ounching bag as I have said many times before. On the surface they will show an anti-Israel approach; but underneath they will preserve it as their buffer zone with radical Islam.
I meant that the Arab world is more important overall, to the west the Arab world means nothing more than its oil.
In some ways, though, some might say that the US is Israel's cushion, such as in the case of 9/11. I think it's a mutual defense for both the west and Israel, as Israel is in the Arab world geographically, but other nations supply Israel with weapons and occasionally troops to defend itself.
When was Israel supplied with troops to defend itself? Is this another CIA conspirecy theory?
Britain and France sent troops to Suez Canal for their own interests. Do you remember how it all started? The UN under France and UK imposed a ceasefire it knew Egypt would not take and then intervened for Intl. "peace" in order to not pay in the Suez Canal. Israel was to attack anyway after the closure since it anounced that such a closure of an intl. waterway is a declaration of war. The US at the time did not want to intervene.
As for the peacekeeping force defending Israel, I thnk you are mistaken. Looking at the damage caused to Lebanon it is more likely that it will defend Lebanon and the only way to do that is to reign in on Hezbolah. You honestly don't believe Indonesia, the largest Muslim country n the world whose president organized numerous anti-Israel rallies will be trusted by the Israelis. Its like letting Hitler atke care of Jews in Europe!
This does not mean that it is a sweeping rule for all Muslim countries since Pakistan and Turkey are in.
No, I do not remember how it all started, I'm not old enough to. I find it unlikely that history sources are in conspiracy to make one believe that Britain, France, and Israel were in alliance, and so therefore I believe that they were. If you have another idea and sources to back it up, I would of course be most interested.
As for current times, if I were Israeli I would not trust Indonesia to be near Israel. If I were Palestinian I would not trust an occupying force to occupy my home either. It's like letting European immigrants take care of Native Americans.
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