What's on the table for Hezbollah?

Hezbollah has been claiming lately that it has the full support of the people. In that case it can very well solve the mess in Lebanon to its satisfaction: It can lay down its weapons, join the Lebanese army and through parliament and cabinet declare war on Israel! Alegedly this would be the best solution for it, for it would pull the rug right underneath Israel's claims regarding Hezbollah's illegitimacy; giving Nasrallah a diplomatic adavntage. Yet this scenario is not realistic and Hezbollah knows it.

Hezbollah's timing for the attack was more than just a coordination of effort with Hamas, much more. Since Israel withdrew from Lebanon and in light of Israel's restraint in the past six years in face of Hezbollah provocations, people in Lebanon started wondering as to why exactly do they need Hezbollah. The Israelis are out and Sheba farms are Syrian property despite all of Hezboolah's and Syria's claims since Syria is not willing to sign otherwise (talking and signing are two different things as any one who has been involved in contract disputes knows). Hezbollah knows all this.

It knows that if it lays down its arms and joins the Lebanese parliament and army, no war with Israel would be on the horizon for all the other factions led by the currently de jure Prime Minister of Lebanon, Fouad Seniora, would object. When that happens, Hezbollah's usefullness to Syria and Iran as a proxy weapon would drop to zero in an instant; and as a result, Nasserallah and his colleagues will not be able to continue financing their number one source of power: the vast social welfare services they provide Lebanon's impoverished Shi'a community, comprising 40% of Lebanon's population.

In light of this, and in light of the organizations declarations indicating declining support at home, it is easy to see why Hezbollah and Nasrallah are willing to sacrifice Lebanon in the fight with Israel. For without that fight, without Iranian-Syrian funding for it and for the organization's social welfare programs, Hezbollah will be reduced to a mere political party; and an insignificant one at that.

Now I know what you might be thinking: if that is the case, then is not Israel's response counterproductive to its objetives? Would it not have been logical then to seat and wait for Hezbollah's demise? The answer is surprisingly no. Because these questions raise other interesting questions: what differentiates the time before and after the Israeli attack? Why is it that the Lebanese government did not jump on this declining popularity of Hebzollah and eliminate it before all hell broke loose? The answer to these questions sets the background for the Israeli actions and answers the question openning this paragraph.

For the past six years, the government of Prime Minister Fouad Seniora may have wished Hezbollah to be gone; but feared that acting on it would bring forward a civil war. This meant that although the motive was there, the desire was not as long as Hezbollah was not causing any trouble. But the price for this avoidence of civil war should not have been paid by Israel. And so Israel acted, knowing that no salvation would come from the de jure government of Fouad Seniora.

If the Seniora government would have acted, it would have ignited a civil war as Prime Minister Seniora would have been accused of persecuting Shia Lebanese. But now with the growing international pressure, he can do so with less fear. He can paint the elimination of Hezbollah as a resopnse to international pressure and Lebanon's devastation to counter accusations of sectarian bias. This is what separates the before and after of the Israeli attack and as I noted, Hezbollah knows it. This leads back to the openning point of this post that a ceasefire that would end with Hezbollah's disarming and joining the army and parliament of Lebanon, means the end of the war with Israel and the end of Hezbollah. And that is something Nasrallah will not have, even if he has to bring down Lebanon in flames to fight it... and obviously he does.

Tags:
Middle East, Lebanon, Israel, Hezbollah,