US-Iran Talks: A Chance for Iran and Iraq to Shine

The attempted mediations by Iraqi Shi'ias for talks between Iran and the US over the issue of Iraq would not produce normalization of relations between the two countries; however they have presented an amazing opportunity for both the governments of Iraq and Iran to demonstrate their ability to be a stabilizing force in the Middle East if they put their minds to it. They are also an opportunity for the Bush administration to shake off some of its hard-line characterization, and help promote the stability in Iraq, which the administration so desperately needs to save its credibility. However it should be done with caution and without bringing the nuclear issue into the talks.

For the Iranian government the talks are important; as is stability in Iraq. A lack of stability in Iraq, particularly with regards to the Kurdish population who has a significant representation in Iran, would not bode well for Iran. On the other hand, with the various calls from American conservative circles pointing to a connection between the Shi'ia majority in Iraq and the Iranian government, stability in Iraq might help the Iranians score a lot of points in the world public opinion, as they present themselves as a stabilizing factor in the region. Those points are urgently needed by a government whose policy so far has pushed the country further and further into isolation. The talks might also provide the Iranians, if they so wished, a way to climb down the nuclear ladder they have climbed and work towards mending fences with the west, something the Iranian economy, and consequentially administration, desperately needs.

To the Iraqi government the realization of these talks might also prove to be beneficiary. It can credit the government with bringing two fierce opponents to seat down at one table and talk; not a small achievement for a government who is constantly criticized for being an American puppet or an Iranian puppet alternatively. Meaningful results from these talks, such as a formal Iranian commitment to refrain from meddling in the Iraqi government affairs backed by an international guarantee, might help the predominantly Shi'ia government reassure the fears of some of the more moderate circles inside the Iraqi Sunni community about Iran, helping the government in restoring the order to Iraq by detracting support from the insurgents.

Finally, the talks between Iran and the US are also an opportunity for the Bush administration to show that it is not the hard-line gun-ho administration everybody thinks it is. It will also allow the Bush Administration to have a chance at improving stability and eventually get a step closer to the point where it can start pulling out troops; something the people at home would surely appreciate.

With the Iranian American talks on Iraq being so beneficial to all parties, it would be a shame to pass on this opportunity to build stability in the region. Of course one should not expect miracles out of this meeting; but also one should not be too pessimistic. If the talks simply help to promote stability in Iraq without any more achievements, it is enough for a start. However before concluding one final warning must be added to both sides and that is regarding Iran's nuclear plan. If the Iranians are not about to let go of it, they should not bring it up in the conversation. Similarly the Americans should not bring the topic up if the Iranians do not bring it up first to show they are wiling to compromise. Failing to adhere to these warnings and bringing the topic up in an attempt to score meaningless PR points by both sides, might divert the talks away from their true potential and objective, ending the talks in a sour note and sending the situation into an even worse status than before. There is a time and a place to discuss the nuclear issue and it is up to the Iranian government to decide when and where before it is too late. Right now it is the stability of Iraq that is the important thing here.

Back to the National Security Drawing Board

The recent torpedoing of the Dubai Ports World deal to manage six American ports sent a clear message as to next congressional election's hot topic. The economy is once again going to take second seat to National Security. And according to voices from both sides of the political map, that's how the American public wants it.

Throughout its term, the Bush administration has been constantly accused of Islamophobia and Arab bashing even though, as I noted in my post "the Benefits of a Texas Cowboy", it has probably done more for Arab-Muslim progress than most other presidents. Different political figures, mostly democrats, found it convenient to portray the administration's actions as such, contributing immensely to the decline of the administration's and America's popularity in the world (if you note a degree of criticism in this last sentence – don't. it is the cynical role of the opposition to bring down the GOP no matter what the costs are). Yet it is surprising to hear the same voices objecting selling control of six US ports to an Arab company stating - you guessed it - security concerns. What gives?

The simple answer is that National Security is back in the hot seat. Let's face the facts - despite all the criticism of the Bush administration by many Americans about demonizing Islam etc., it is a far cry from trusting your Arab neighbor. And both parties know it. As one democrat leader noted when speaking of the deal "finally the American public got its say" and that say is national security. Therefore it should not come as a surprise that the next elections are going to focus on national security. Democrats are going to ask who tried to sell US ports and republicans are going to ask who prevented another 9/11. For many Americans that hoped that the economy is going to play a key role in the next elections I only have one thing left to say – tough luck, better luck next time.