PA: Unity government last false hope for Hamas government
Many hold high hopes for the forthcoming unity government and its effect on Palestinian politics; but the fact is that this is a hopeless attempt by the Hamas government to reach out while its government is plunging to its death.
Hamas government is in pretty much the same situation as was the Siniora government during the recent conflict - held captive by its more radical factions. Hanniya's government was on its way to start some sort of an indirect dialougue with Israel based on the document known as "the prisoners' document". When Khaled Mashal learned of that in Syria, his only next logical step was to kidnap Cpl. Shalit in order to make sure no reproach occurs. The Hamas government was and is helpless as they do not even know where the soldier is.
This situation is further complicated by the looming economic crisis in the PA. A survey conducted last week by the A-Nagah university of Schem concluded that had the elections been held today, for the first time since Hamas took power, Fatah would win by a margin of 6% (40 to 34). Therefore a unity government is the last resort for Haniya in his fight with Hamas in Syria and with Israel; but it will do him and his government no good. Not without a serious shift in its Israeli-Palestinian position.
The unity government is, as noted, the last attempt. It is Hanniya's hope that a unity government will keep Hamas in power and attract the masses to counteract Mashal and Hamas leadership in Syria; all while using Fatah's reputation as the more pragmatic wing to get out of the blockade without actually recognizing Israel. But again as noted above, this will not work.
First of all, Hamas will not remain in power. Already sources report that the emerging cabinet would still be led by PM Hanniya; but that Hamas would not hold three of the key positions: Finance, foreign relations and interior (which is in charge of the security forces). This will make Hamas under Hanniya the De-Jure leader; but certainly not the de-facto.
As for uniting the people, this move might be sufficient to do just that; but the question remains as to how powerful are the people in supressing the militant groups? Only time will tell.
Finally with regards to the isolation, this will not help. The Americans and the Israelis won't budge on the three terms - recognition, agreements and end to violence. The Europeans might be sweyed but this would be of little use. The EU might be the PA's largest contributor to the tune of 600 million euro a year; but PA economy is still 70% dependent on access to Israel. And so it is time for the Hamas government to adopt a more pragmatic line. Its only chance would be to join hands with Fatah and go against Hamas leadership in Syria on the Israeli issue. Its either that or suffer a defeat that will not be soon forgotten by the impoverished Palestinian public.
Hamas government is in pretty much the same situation as was the Siniora government during the recent conflict - held captive by its more radical factions. Hanniya's government was on its way to start some sort of an indirect dialougue with Israel based on the document known as "the prisoners' document". When Khaled Mashal learned of that in Syria, his only next logical step was to kidnap Cpl. Shalit in order to make sure no reproach occurs. The Hamas government was and is helpless as they do not even know where the soldier is.
This situation is further complicated by the looming economic crisis in the PA. A survey conducted last week by the A-Nagah university of Schem concluded that had the elections been held today, for the first time since Hamas took power, Fatah would win by a margin of 6% (40 to 34). Therefore a unity government is the last resort for Haniya in his fight with Hamas in Syria and with Israel; but it will do him and his government no good. Not without a serious shift in its Israeli-Palestinian position.
The unity government is, as noted, the last attempt. It is Hanniya's hope that a unity government will keep Hamas in power and attract the masses to counteract Mashal and Hamas leadership in Syria; all while using Fatah's reputation as the more pragmatic wing to get out of the blockade without actually recognizing Israel. But again as noted above, this will not work.
First of all, Hamas will not remain in power. Already sources report that the emerging cabinet would still be led by PM Hanniya; but that Hamas would not hold three of the key positions: Finance, foreign relations and interior (which is in charge of the security forces). This will make Hamas under Hanniya the De-Jure leader; but certainly not the de-facto.
As for uniting the people, this move might be sufficient to do just that; but the question remains as to how powerful are the people in supressing the militant groups? Only time will tell.
Finally with regards to the isolation, this will not help. The Americans and the Israelis won't budge on the three terms - recognition, agreements and end to violence. The Europeans might be sweyed but this would be of little use. The EU might be the PA's largest contributor to the tune of 600 million euro a year; but PA economy is still 70% dependent on access to Israel. And so it is time for the Hamas government to adopt a more pragmatic line. Its only chance would be to join hands with Fatah and go against Hamas leadership in Syria on the Israeli issue. Its either that or suffer a defeat that will not be soon forgotten by the impoverished Palestinian public.
posted by The Middle East News Addict at 12:59 AM
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