The N. Korea Nuclear Deal: Kim Jong Il - 3, GOP - 0, HR - 0
The truth of the matter is, that the reality of the recent deal struck between N. Korea and the West is not as terrible as the headline for this post describes; after all, the IAEA and the West do get some glimpse into the N Korean program. But the unfortunate part is that reality is not that far from it. This becomes especially clear if one considers N Korea's compliance history with regards to the Clinton agreement; and the Bush administration's Human Rights record filled with good intentions and abyssmal preformance. Could there have been a better agreement? One that would be better for everyone? This post argues that given the Iranian situation, the players at the talks, and N Korea's dreadful situation, then yes. However before one continues straight to the answer, it is important that we analyze the above "score" to see the problem.
It is not hard to see why the recent deal spells victory for Kim Jong Il. After all he got what he wanted - Nuclear power, Financial Help and a "get ou of jail" card - and is not that the definition of victory?
Kim Jong Il, and N Korea for that matter, are not Iran. For one thing they do not hold this messianic desire for the nukes for anything other than a bargaining chip; and for the other they do not have the vast natural resources. And so the energy pack is like mana from then for Jong Il just before the world is on a verge of losing patience with him because of Iran, and before the people lose patience with him due to food shortages. So we can see how the financial pack helps. But the people's plight brings us to his second victory, the "get out of jail" card.
Alongside his fear from his people, Kim Jong Il is truly afraid of mounting pressure from Human Rights activists affecting their governments during elections. Bush and other countries' refusal for diplomatic relations (he currently has relations with 27) deprives him of his much needed legitimacy in power in order to continue abusing his people for his dellusions of granditure. And so his ability to get relations with the US opens a whole new world for him of immunity from further criticism. After all, if the US agrees to have diplomatic relations with him, so would everybody else. However the third victory, Nuclear weapons, is the biggest of them all.
Kim Jong Il is not the man to rely on promises and pieces of paper as guarantee. He knows better than everyone what they are worth as he himself broke the accords with Clinton and kicked the IAEA out. He needed a final guarentee and that guarenttee is the prosponement of disarmament of weapons already produced to "later discussions". "Later discussion" is diplomatic lingo for "whenever I feel like it". 3-0 for Kim Jong Il so far.
All of N Korea's victories of course came at somebody's expanse. First and foremost of course, the starving people of N Korea. Amnesty International can yell as much as it wants but when those ambassies open up they will be in a whole new ball game, one in which they cannot win much to the dismay of said N Koreans. This of course is a huge loss for Human Rights. Another loss in Human Rights is not something the GOP can easily afford right now.
Following Abu Gharaib and Guantanamo Bay, the GOP has been under Democratic fire for Human Rights. At the same breath,following Iran and Iraq they have been under fire for exessive use of force rather than diplomacy. And here too is a place where they cannot win: Attack N Korea and you are a bully; Let Kim Jong Il get away with abusing his people through diplomatic relations and it adds to your abbyssmal Human Rights record. So what could they have done actually? Not much more but a little bit.
Though Kim Jong Il put on a pretty smug show, deep inside he was not. The situation from within and especially the situation with Iran was casting a huge shadow. Just the other day the EU, competing with the US for dominance by presenting a diplomatic way due to lack of power, addmitted that perhaps treating Iran with diplomacy was not the right thing. When the EU says that while the US is iching is pretty frightening. Fear that could have been used to demand full disarmament now and Human Rights transperancy in return for energy and relations. But could Republicans do it without being portrayed as bullies? No, but it is not like they had a choice.
When a politician runs out of lies and spins and whatever other trick up his sleeve, he is left with the one doom's day weapon he fears more than all: showing some principals. Let us face it: the GOP can do very little other than that in order to save its deteriorating image and not doing it is a final nail in their coughin. Just consider the following Democratic rhetoric v. Republican conclusion just prior to elections:
Democrats"We have seen the GOP's HR record when they left the people of N Korea out in the cold after Iraq while failing to deal with a mad man's weapons"
v.
Republicans: "We have done what was needed with N Korea and have been portrayed as bullies. The price to avoid that, Human Rights, was just too great a price for our principals to let it slide..."
Convinced?
An so in conclusion we have seen that the GOP could have taken a better road than the one it took with regards to N Korea at a small price to an already deteriorating image. A road that would have been better for all but ruthless tyrant. It has chosen unwisely, and it will cost it come election time.
It is not hard to see why the recent deal spells victory for Kim Jong Il. After all he got what he wanted - Nuclear power, Financial Help and a "get ou of jail" card - and is not that the definition of victory?
Kim Jong Il, and N Korea for that matter, are not Iran. For one thing they do not hold this messianic desire for the nukes for anything other than a bargaining chip; and for the other they do not have the vast natural resources. And so the energy pack is like mana from then for Jong Il just before the world is on a verge of losing patience with him because of Iran, and before the people lose patience with him due to food shortages. So we can see how the financial pack helps. But the people's plight brings us to his second victory, the "get out of jail" card.
Alongside his fear from his people, Kim Jong Il is truly afraid of mounting pressure from Human Rights activists affecting their governments during elections. Bush and other countries' refusal for diplomatic relations (he currently has relations with 27) deprives him of his much needed legitimacy in power in order to continue abusing his people for his dellusions of granditure. And so his ability to get relations with the US opens a whole new world for him of immunity from further criticism. After all, if the US agrees to have diplomatic relations with him, so would everybody else. However the third victory, Nuclear weapons, is the biggest of them all.
Kim Jong Il is not the man to rely on promises and pieces of paper as guarantee. He knows better than everyone what they are worth as he himself broke the accords with Clinton and kicked the IAEA out. He needed a final guarentee and that guarenttee is the prosponement of disarmament of weapons already produced to "later discussions". "Later discussion" is diplomatic lingo for "whenever I feel like it". 3-0 for Kim Jong Il so far.
All of N Korea's victories of course came at somebody's expanse. First and foremost of course, the starving people of N Korea. Amnesty International can yell as much as it wants but when those ambassies open up they will be in a whole new ball game, one in which they cannot win much to the dismay of said N Koreans. This of course is a huge loss for Human Rights. Another loss in Human Rights is not something the GOP can easily afford right now.
Following Abu Gharaib and Guantanamo Bay, the GOP has been under Democratic fire for Human Rights. At the same breath,following Iran and Iraq they have been under fire for exessive use of force rather than diplomacy. And here too is a place where they cannot win: Attack N Korea and you are a bully; Let Kim Jong Il get away with abusing his people through diplomatic relations and it adds to your abbyssmal Human Rights record. So what could they have done actually? Not much more but a little bit.
Though Kim Jong Il put on a pretty smug show, deep inside he was not. The situation from within and especially the situation with Iran was casting a huge shadow. Just the other day the EU, competing with the US for dominance by presenting a diplomatic way due to lack of power, addmitted that perhaps treating Iran with diplomacy was not the right thing. When the EU says that while the US is iching is pretty frightening. Fear that could have been used to demand full disarmament now and Human Rights transperancy in return for energy and relations. But could Republicans do it without being portrayed as bullies? No, but it is not like they had a choice.
When a politician runs out of lies and spins and whatever other trick up his sleeve, he is left with the one doom's day weapon he fears more than all: showing some principals. Let us face it: the GOP can do very little other than that in order to save its deteriorating image and not doing it is a final nail in their coughin. Just consider the following Democratic rhetoric v. Republican conclusion just prior to elections:
Democrats"We have seen the GOP's HR record when they left the people of N Korea out in the cold after Iraq while failing to deal with a mad man's weapons"
v.
Republicans: "We have done what was needed with N Korea and have been portrayed as bullies. The price to avoid that, Human Rights, was just too great a price for our principals to let it slide..."
Convinced?
An so in conclusion we have seen that the GOP could have taken a better road than the one it took with regards to N Korea at a small price to an already deteriorating image. A road that would have been better for all but ruthless tyrant. It has chosen unwisely, and it will cost it come election time.
posted by The Middle East News Addict at 5:11 PM
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