Peace & The Wave Pattern of Israeli Politics

King Abdullah of Jordan warned today that the Israeli Right wing is gaining strength; and will soon turn Israel into a fortress of uncompromise. He therefore called upon the fighting Palestinian factions to stop their fighting and sit for negotiations with Israel before it is too late. It is important that Palestinians heed to that warning.

Israeli elections have always responded to the security situation. If Israelis felt safe, a more conciliatory government was chosen. However if felt threatened, then a hawkish government was in the cards. It is enough to look at the pattern of Israeli elections to understand that. After Rabin's overtures were turned down, Netanyahu came to the fore. After his heavy handedness and Israeli security sense increase, Barak was elected. And finally once Barak's overtures in Camp David 2000 were rejected with the openning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, Sharon came to the fore. This pattern was first observed by Prof. Asher Arian of the Jafee Institute for Strategic Studies; and to a large degree still prevails today.

Therefore it should be no surprise that King Abdullah is sounding this warning now. He sees the way Olmert and his attempts to continue Sharon's disengagment are engulphed in flames torched by the Palestinian kidnapping of Gilad Shalit and Hezbullah's irresponsible adenture this last summer. Liberman and Netanyahu are breathing down Olmert's neck and with his cabinet, and the President, plagued with allegations of corruption and sexual harrassment, it is only a matter of time till the Israeli right is back on the saddle again . This prospect brings us back to point one: the King's warning that negotiations and the road of compromise must be taken by Palestinians now; before they are met with an Israeli government who will truly not want to talk any more.