Saturday, July 01, 2006

Gaza: Who Killed the Diplomatic Channel?

Many people are now asking what has caused Israel to move away so quickly from the diplomatic channel into the military channel, supposedly without giving the diplomatic channel a chance? The answer is that Israel has already been through this scenario once before, and it did not bode well for the country.

When Palestinian militants (and in this case it is fair to call them militants as their target has been a military one; as oppose to Qassam rocket terrorists who aim purely at Israeli civilians) demanded the release of prisoners in exchange for information on the condition of the kidnapped soldier, alarms were ringing in Israeli policy making circles. "We have been through this scenario once beofre" they must have said to themselves. They were not wrong.

When the Palestinians made the aforementioned demand, they no doubtedly imitated the method used four years ago by Hezbollah strongman Sheikh Hassan Nasserallah in the matter of the three Israeli soldiers his organization kidnapped. Nasserallah toyed with Israel for two years sending mixed messages to the Israeli government through German mediators about the soldiers' condition. In the end, after two years of negotiations, Israel released 450 live prisoners in return for three soldiers' bodies and an Israeli civilian kidnapped under mysterious circumstances in Europe by Hezbollah. Undoubtedly, Nasserallah gave lessons to the Palestinians on this subject. Unfortunately he did not teach the Palestinians the most important lesson of all: that this trick only works once.

It was only when Israel recieved the bodies that it knew the soldiers were dead. The feeling among the Israeli public was that Nasseallah has toyed with them for two years and played them for fools; a notion Nasserallah himself was quick to emphasize. Unsurprisingly, the government was widely criticized for not doing anything to save the soldiers and for leaving it all to diplomatic negotiators. Prime Minister Sharon pushed away these criticisms noting that he has had thirty years of military experience under his belt and that these kind of things sometimes happen. Unfortunately for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and for the Palestinians, Olmert does not have this kind of experience to rely on.

Prime Minister Olmert would not be able to hide behind years of military experience; nor can he afford the criticisms from the public when his coalition is not one of the strongest Israel has ever known. The aforementioned incident with Nasserallah; and the execution of Israeli citizen Eliyahu Asheri only an hour after he was kidnapped have pushed him to the only viable option he sees as remaining: the military pressure. Incidently this military pressure is also meant to deal with Palestinian terrorists' (as oppose to militants) constant firing on Israeli civilians; another touchie issue for the prime minister.

And so in response to the question opening this post, "Who killed the Diplomatic Channel?" one can only answer that it was Hezbollah's Sheikh Hassan Nasserallah who has taught Israel to give very little chance to diplomacy before moving on to less pleasent methods of request. With this kind of lesson, one can only hope that the militants who have kidnapped Cpl. Shalit have their citizens in mind and will release him before things escalate even further.

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