Iran is stretching the rope to its limits

Iranian ambassador to Switzerland anounced today that his country will give its response to the incentives program by late August. The motivation for that is clear: by late August the upcoming G8 summit in Russia will have passed, giving Iran ample time to stall things and pursue its nuclear ambitions. Given President Ahmadinejad's remarks about Israel and the West and the threat of Islmaic outburst, these ambitions cannot be peaceful.

When the G8 summit passes, the chance for the permanent members of the Security Council to talk and pass the matter to the Security Council officially will also pass. Russia and China are likely to reject any talks of Iran's nuclear program before the Iranian response will arrive. This response however, is unlikely to arrive any time soon. The first definitive response to the incentives program will probably be something along the lines of "We accept the offer but demand the right to hold on to our bomb which we have just finished developing". By then it should be obvious to everyone that there will not be much anyone can do about it.

However President Ahamadinejad, as we have noted before, is again miscalculating the West's patience as well as his neighbours'. The situation has become much more tense now that North Korea has tested its weapons; and as the war in Iraq has proven, the US is quite capable of proceeding without Security Council approval. However in difference to Iraq, this time, when the US springs into action, its 'coalition of the willing' will be far wider due to Western fears; quashing any concerns that the US army mightbe overstreched. When that happens, not even Russia and China will be able to stop them; nor will they want to.

Tags:
Middle East, Iran, G8, Security Council, US, Nuclear.