UNSC resolution 1701: Signs of hope but still a long way to go.

UN Security council resolution 1701 regarding the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is an important step forward. Despite that it has one fatal drawback and that is that it allows Hezbollah a small temporary victory that will alow it to try and survive politically. Nevertheless, the resolution is a golden opportunity for the Lebanese government to exert control over all of its territory.

The resolution only puts the unconditional release of the Israeli soldiers as a preamble. This would not fly in Israel even if the government does approve it. As the Israeli public has always proven, at the top of their mind stands deterence and if that seems to be gone (as Nasrallah wll try and claim) they will elect a more hardline government that will "finish the job". So it was when Benjamin Netanyahu replaced Peres and Rabin; and so it was when Ariel Sharon replaced Ehud Barak.

Now you may say "alright, but a deal is a deal and Israel will not be able to attack after signing the ceasefire agreement". True, but if you look closely at the phrasing of the resolution you will see this depends greatly on Hezbollah's refraining from any more cross border attacks (which it won't) since the resolution gives Israel still the right to retaliate.

The resolution calls for a halt to Israeli OFFENSIVE operations; yet this whole war for Israel has been DEFENCIEVE. This leaves Israel quite the lee-way which it should have if Lebanon does not exert its sovereignty over all of Lebanon as the resolution calls for.

Despite these loopholes, the resolution also allows the Lebanese government to do just that. It calls for an intl. force to assist the government; and it calls for an arms embargo that will allow weapons into Lebanon only with the government's approval. Now not even Russia will be able to bypass that. With Hezbollah politically weaken due to the huge devastation it provoked upon Lebanon; the government of Fouad Seniora has a good chance to hold things together. If he takes it, Prime Minister Fouad Seniora might go down in Lebanon's history books as the Rudi Juliani of Lebanon.

Tags:
Middle East, Lebanon, Israel, UN, Hezbollah.